XRP (XRP) could rally toward $5 or higher by March, according to a confluence of bullish indicators.
XRP Bounce Doubles Down Bull Flag Setup
As of Jan. 14, XRP was forming a bull flag pattern on its longer-timeframe charts.
A bull flag setup forms when the price consolidates sideways or lower within a parallel channel after experiencing a significant rally. In technical analysis, such a setup resolves when the price breaks above the channel’s upper trendline and rises by as much as the height of the previous uptrend.
XRP bounced by around 25% after testing the flag’s lower trendline as support, increasing the odds of a rise toward the upper trendline resistance near $3.35-3.50. A continued upside momentum from there, if accompanied by higher volumes, may lead the price toward the bull flag measured target at around the $4.90-5.00 area, as shown below.
Conversely, XRP could face downside pressure near its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) at around $2.28. That will likely result in the retest of the flag’s lower trendline support, which, if broken to the downside, will invalidate the bullish outlook altogether.
XRP HODLer Behavior Signals Renewed Accumulation
Glassnode’s HODLer Net Position Change data suggests XRP long-term holders are shifting back into accumulation after a prolonged distribution phase in late 2025.
During that period, negative readings indicated that holders were trimming exposure as the price moved sideways. More recently, the metric has flipped positive, signaling that long-term investors are once again adding to positions.
Historically, such transitions tend to follow corrective or consolidation phases, often marking the return of conviction rather than market exhaustion. In XRP’s case, the renewed accumulation aligns with price rebounding from the lower boundary of its broader bull flag structure. If this trend persists as XRP tests resistance near $3.35–$3.50, it would support the case for a breakout toward the $4.90–$5.00 measured target.
A reversal back into sustained distribution would weaken this bullish outlook.
XRP NUPL Shows Profits Rising, But Euphoria Absent
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that holders are sitting on growing unrealized gains, but the market has not yet entered an overheated phase.
The indicator has moved into the “Belief–Denial” zone, a regime that typically follows a strong trend reversal and reflects rising conviction among profitable holders.
Historically, this phase supports trend continuation, as selling pressure remains muted during pullbacks. Importantly, XRP’s NUPL remains below the “Euphoria–Greed” zone, suggesting upside potential remains before sentiment reaches exhaustion. A sustained rise in NUPL alongside price would reinforce the bullish breakout case, while a sharp rollover could signal early profit-taking risks.